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Will currency depreciation solve the trade deficit problem?

The answer is plainly no. A depreciation of the US dollar will not remove the trade deficits. In 1970s, one dollar exchanged for 360 Japanese Yen. Now, one dollar is worth for only around 100 Yen. In other words, Yen has appreciated 72%. Still, Japan runs a huge trade surplus with the US today.

Exchange rate is just one of the many factors that drive the trade balance between two countries. Differences in interest rate, savings,  growth rate, level of financial development (in terms of how easy to get access to consumer credit) all played a role.

Here I show a historical graph from St. Louis Fed, which looks at the relationship between trade-weighted dollar index (with major trading partners) and the US trade deficits. The green line is the dollar index (left axis), the higher the value, the more valuable the dollar. The red line is US trade deficits (right axis) in billions of dollars.

As shown in the graph, from mid 1980s to early 1990s, the dollar index dropped (or depreciation) against major currencies by  over 40%, dropping from 150 to 85, and the trade deficits got eliminated.

During recent years, especially after 2002, the US dollar index declined from 110 to 70 (in 2008), another nearly 40% drop, however, the trade deficits soared.  So there gotta be some other reasons that drive the trade balances.

How about the super easy monetary policy by the Greenspan Fed? The extended period of low interest rate after 9.11 helped fuel the housing bubble, creating a fake appreciation of household wealth…American consumers became more confident than ever, resulting in surge of consumption, and imports.

My conclusion is: currency is certainly a factor in determining trade balances, but it’s not all that matters.  So don’t be fooled.

Finally, I wanted to entertain you with another piece of debate on the issue.

Stephen Roach: Take out Krugman’s baseball bat

Krugman portrayed the problem of global imbalances as solely coming out of China’s high saving rate and manipulation of its currency. Stephen Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, offers a more comprehensive perspective.

Americans have been saving nothing, consuming too much, and high on leverage. “Get your own house in order” before you carry stick toward others — that’s the sensible advice from Roach.

Economists jousting on China’s exchange rate

Paul Krugman says the US should take on China, and imposes 25% tariff.  According to Mr. Krugman, a Nobel winning trade economist, he came to "propose this turn to policy hardball lightly":

Here, we have to get past a common misunderstanding: the view that the Chinese have us over a barrel, because we don’t dare provoke China into dumping its dollar assets.

What you have to ask is, What would happen if China tried to sell a large share of its U.S. assets? Would interest rates soar? Short-term U.S. interest rates wouldn’t change: they’re being kept near zero by the Fed, which won’t raise rates until the unemployment rate comes down. Long-term rates might rise slightly, but they’re mainly determined by market expectations of future short-term rates. Also, the Fed could offset any interest-rate impact of a Chinese pullback by expanding its own purchases of long-term bonds.

It’s true that if China dumped its U.S. assets the value of the dollar would fall against other major currencies, such as the euro. But that would be a good thing for the United States, since it would make our goods more competitive and reduce our trade deficit. On the other hand, it would be a bad thing for China, which would suffer large losses on its dollar holdings. In short, right now America has China over a barrel, not the other way around.

So we have no reason to fear China. But what should we do?

Some still argue that we must reason gently with China, not confront it. But we’ve been reasoning with China for years, as its surplus ballooned, and gotten nowhere: on Sunday Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, declared — absurdly — that his nation’s currency is not undervalued. (The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that the renminbi is undervalued by between 20 and 40 percent.) And Mr. Wen accused other nations of doing what China actually does, seeking to weaken their currencies “just for the purposes of increasing their own exports.”

But if sweet reason won’t work, what’s the alternative? In 1971 the United States dealt with a similar but much less severe problem of foreign undervaluation by imposing a temporary 10 percent surcharge on imports, which was removed a few months later after Germany, Japan and other nations raised the dollar value of their currencies. At this point, it’s hard to see China changing its policies unless faced with the threat of similar action — except that this time the surcharge would have to be much larger, say 25 percent.

I don’t propose this turn to policy hardball lightly. But Chinese currency policy is adding materially to the world’s economic problems at a time when those problems are already very severe. It’s time to take a stand.

Greg Mankiw, defending free-trade principle, argues that it's very hard to say whether Chinese Yuan is still overvalued after almost 21% appreciation since 2005.  Blaming China during time of crisis is simply not very constructive.

Critics of China say it is keeping the yuan undervalued to gain an advantage in the international marketplace. A cheaper yuan makes Chinese goods less expensive in the United States and American goods more expensive in China. As a result, American producers find it harder to compete with Chinese imports in the United States and to sell their own exports in China.

There is, however, another side to the story. The loss to American producers comes with a gain to the many millions of American consumers who prefer to pay less for the goods they buy.

The situation is much the same as when the price of imported oil falls, as it has done in recent months. Domestic oil producers may see lower profits, but American consumers are better off every time they fill up their tanks. Consumers similarly gain when a cheap yuan reduces the prices of T-shirts and televisions imported from China.

Perhaps the oddest thing about Mr. Geithner’s move is that his complaint seems out of date. The yuan-dollar exchange rate has moved considerably in recent years. After a long period of completely fixing the exchange rate, China allowed its currency to start moving in July 2005. Since then, it has appreciated by 21 percent.

DIRECTING attention to the China currency issue amid a worldwide recession and growing fears of depression is more than a distraction. It is downright counterproductive. Senators Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, and Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, have long proposed dealing with the yuan undervaluation by imposing tariffs on Chinese imports. The Treasury secretary’s comments risk stoking those protectionist embers.

Indeed, protectionist influences seem to be finding their way into the stimulus bill winding its way through Congress. The bill passed by the House included a provision banning the use of foreign iron and steel in infrastructure projects. The Senate has adopted a somewhat more flexible restriction (after voting down an amendment by John McCain to strip the “Buy American” provision from the bill).

Who’s deadwrong on China?


Is China’s real estate bubble ready to burst?

Predicting bubble in notoriously difficult, not to mention predicting when the bubble will burst. Nonetheless, I do think China’s real estate bubble will burst eventually. It’s not a matter of whether, but when.

Some insights from investor Chanos.

China to launch foreign stock ETF

China has some innovative ways to diversify its huge foreign reserves. I am very happy to see China did not stop its reform in financial sectors in the aftermath of financial crisis, rather the pace has sped up.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange, in an effort to expand ties to overseas markets, will launch China’s first exchange-traded fund tracking foreign stocks this year, SSE president Zhang Yujun said on Thursday. The announcement follows local media reports that the SSE will allow Chinese fund companies to develop global ETFs to track overseas indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It also comes amid expectations that Beijing will finally allow foreign companies to list in Shanghai this year.

China’s hot money headache, continued

Following up my previous post on China’s hot money problem, here is another update (source: WSJ):

Capital control will never be effective. This is a classical problem for fixed-exchange rate system. No easy way out. It’s just a matter how big will be the hit when all hot money tries to get out at the same time.

A one-time reevaluation or even more dramatic measures may be on the horizon. And when it happens, don’t get surprised.

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China became world’s largest auto producer and consumer

IN 2009, China became No. 1 in the world in both automobile production and consumption. Note that this was during the severe contraction in auto markets in developed world, especially in the United States. Nonetheless, this was quite remarkable.

Link to the report in Chinese.
(update on Jan 19) Here is another report from New York Times.