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December 2018
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Analysis of April Employment Report

John Silvia:

David Rosenberg:

3 reasons why we’ll have another jobless recovery

Paul Kasriel, Chief economist of Northern Trust, explains in this interview piece why labor market will take very long time to recover. Very sensible analysis.

(click on the image to play)

Also watch Part II of the interview.

Job market is improving, but still…

US labor market has started to add jobs at a pace not seen since 2007 (see chart below, graph courtesy of Northern Trust).  This is positive.

Highlights of job losses/gains in March:

Construction: +15,000 vs. -59,000 in February
Manufacturing: +17,000 vs. +6,000 in February
Private sector service employment: +82,000 vs. +15,000 in February
Retail employment: +14,900 vs. +8,000 in February
Professional and business services: +11,000 vs. +40,000 in February
Temporary help: +40,200 vs. +36,700 in February
Financial activities: -21,000 vs. -15,000 in February
Health care employment: +26,800 vs. +14,100 in February

But still (pretty much) this will be a jobless recovery (see the scary chart below), following the last two recessions (1990-91, and 2001).

(click to enlarge; graph courtesy of calculatedrisk)

Tough road ahead…