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The latest Jeremy Gratham interview, with Charlie Rose. In this 50-min video interview, Jeremy talks about China and world’s energy price; his interesting experience with asset bubbles in the past (a frequent topic, but still refreshing), and his forecast of the US economic growth and stock market.
My favorite part is he analogized Fed’s monetary policy as whipping a donkey, trying to make the economy run faster like a race horse. 🙂 Quite accurate.
Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates updates his outlook on the Europe, the US and emerging markets, and what keeps him up at night.
His view that the success of the great deleveraging depends on the right balance between fiscal austerity and debt monetization is interesting and insightful.
The 10-year Treasury yield is one of the most watched market and macro indicators. For example, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan watched the yield regularly. Once he sees the yield, he immediately knows what’s going on with the US economy.
Today (July 23, 2012), the yield reads 1.43%. In the last couple of months, with European situation not getting better, and the US recovery seeming to falter again (for the consecutive three years), the yield has remained at historical low level around lower 140 bps.
To put this into historical perspective, according to the research by Bank of America /Merrill Lynch, this is the lowest level since 1790, lower than the yields after the WWII, more than ten years after the Great Depression. See the chart below.
At this depressed level, it seems to indicate the US economy will remain subpar for many years to come – another Japan?
Jeremy Siegel, professor at UPenn and founder of WisdomTree, also a long-term bull on equity, offers his insight on the investment opportunities after the heavy selloff of last few weeks.
He had a short: TIPS;
He had a long: dividend-paying stocks, excl. financials.