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August 2022
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Europe debt contagion: we’re all connected

Some fantastic charts from NYT showing how interconnected our financial systems are. Hat tip to Blake LeBaron at Brandeis.

(click on the image for some really nice network charts)

 

For the interconnection between Europe and emerging markets, please read my earlier post here.

 

When debt contagion arrives…

Now it looks like no matter what Europeans are trying to do, and how many summits politicians rush to put together, things just keep getting worse.

If PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) were to ‘fly ‘, and debt contagion were to spread, and Europe’s Lehman moment finally to arrive, you probably want to at least have a slightest hint of where the next domino is likely to fall. That’s the purpose of this short post.

The following four charts are from researchers at BIS, including my former Brandeis teacher Steve Cecchetti.  I suggest that everybody take a minimum of five minutes going through these tables. For nerds like me, I stick them on the wall in my office.

All debt:

[singlepic id=17 w=240 h=180 float=]

Government debt:

[singlepic id=19 w=240 h=180 float=]

Household debt:

[singlepic id=20 w=240 h=180 float=]

Corporate debt:

[singlepic id=18 w=240 h=180 float=]

 

The impact of a Greek default

Insightful analysis from FT: