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Ireland and Greece

WSJ compares the two weakest links in the European economy:

Greece and Ireland face the biggest fiscal problems in Europe. But their responses couldn't be more different. Greece's lack of credibility has cost it dearly in the eyes of ratings companies, the European Commission and the bond market. That means it will have to go even further than Ireland if it is to win back confidence.

Both countries face double-digit deficits this year: 12.7% of gross domestic product in Greece and around 12% in Ireland. Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to hit 120% next year; Ireland's headline ratio of 64% would also rise to more than 100% if the bad debt taken on by the government under its bank bailouts is included. The European Commission is demanding both cut their deficits to below 3% of GDP and reduce debt-to-GDP to less than 60%.

Yet both the commission and the rating companies are taking a notably more lenient attitude toward Ireland than Greece. Ireland proposes only to cut its deficit to 10.8% of GDP in 2010, compared to 9.1% in Greece. But Ireland has been given until 2014 to meet the commission's demands, while Greece must achieve its targets by 2013. And Ireland is still rated AA, while Greece has just been downgraded to BBB+, raising fears its bonds may not qualify as European Central Bank collateral in the future. That would push up Greek borrowing costs, making it even harder to restore its fiscal position.

Ireland has won this breathing space partly because it has shown far greater political courage. Its 2010 budget includes clear tangible spending cuts. Public-sector wages are to fall by between 5% and 15%, with the prime minister taking a 20% pay cut. Even child-benefit payments are under the ax. In contrast, Greece's budget relies heavily on one-time policies such as measures aimed at reducing tax evasion. Athens has shown a lack of will to embrace spending cuts beyond a partial freeze in public-sector wages and pensions.

But Ireland's past record earns it a degree of forbearance. Between 1994 and 2006, Dublin cut debt to 24% of GDP from 94%, according to Barclays Capital. Compare that to Greece, which has very little credibility when it comes to making tough political decisions: it cut debt only to 94% of GDP in 1999 from 108% in 1994 ahead of euro entry, before it started rising again. Even now, Dublin enjoys broad public acceptance of its austerity plans. But Greece faced riots last year and renewed clashes this past week.

Still, Athens has little choice but to bite the bullet. The credit default swap market is pricing in an appreciable chance of a Greek default. Most likely, the European Union would provide a rescue package, but this would come with strict fiscal conditions attached. The Irish lesson may be a hard one, but Greece needs to learn it fast.

The state of economic recovery

A nice overview of the current state of the economy, presented in a dashboard.

Senate Passes Landmark Health Bill

Now America needs to deal with one fundamental problem that Milton Friedman raised many years ago: the rising welfare and free entry of immigrants especially those unskilled. History shows every time after a big crisis policies will have big change… let’s just hope the change is for good—America not to become another Europe.

Senate Passes Landmark Health Bill

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126165317923104141.html

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Taking stock

Another chart on 2009 rally in historical perspective:

9month

Best performing stocks, watch Ford, Capital One, AIG, and Bank of America.

Best39

(graph courtesy of bespoke)

What to expect at Copenhagen

Interview of Jacob Kirkegaard, a Danish research fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics.

On China’s exchange rate policy

Martin Wolf says China must appreciate its currency otherwise the world is heading for train wreck.

Jim O'Neill, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, counters that after almost 17% appreciation during the past few years, he is not sure Chinese Yuan is still undervalued. He is asking people to look at the evidence on the ground that China is actively restructuring its economy and China's domestic consumption is fast rising.

Dani Rodrik of Harvard University argues while most people focus on China's exchange rate, nobody is offering China a way out of its currency dilemma, and China is in no position to revalue its currency as demanded, as a large Yuan appreciation, say 25%, will kill China's economic growth by 2%.

The bottom line is China can't rely on export as its sole growth engine in the future; and the rest of the world should not blame all problems to China's currency policy.

House flipping, again?

House flipping came back again, in new fashion: the flippers for foreclosed homes. Read this WSJ report.  Here are some exerpts:

Jon Mirmelli, a Phoenix real-estate investor, learned late in the morning of Sept. 28 that a never-occupied custom house on the northern fringes of this Phoenix suburb was going up for auction around noon the same day. The six-bedroom home, built on a three-acre desert plot, has a kitchen with two dishwashers, four ovens, "antibacterial" copper sinks, and a master "spa" bathroom with space for a flat-screen TV visible from the tub.

The minimum bid, as set by a unit of Citigroup Inc., which had a $1.3 million mortgage on the home, was $379,900. After several minutes of bidding among investors and their representatives, some wearing shorts and flip-flops, Mr. Mirmelli won the home for $486,300. A week later, he agreed to sell it for $690,000 to a woman who moved in this month.

Flippers swoop in at public auctions of foreclosed homes, known as trustee or sheriff sales. In many states, the lender sets the minimum bid, and takes possession of the property only if no one bids more. In the past, the minimum generally was about equal to the mortgage balance due. But in today's market, in which many home values have dropped far below the loan balance, lenders wouldn't attract investors if they set the minimum at that level.


Sean O'Toole, chief executive officer of ForeclosureRadar.com, a research firm, estimates that in November about 21% of homes sold in trustee sales in California went to investors rather than to a foreclosing lender, up from 6% a year earlier. The trend is similar in some other areas with high foreclosure rates, including Phoenix and Miami.

The risk for banks is that if they set the minimum bid too low, the home might end up selling for much less than they could reap if they took ownership of it and sold it themselves. But with some 7.5 million U.S. households behind on their mortgage payments or in foreclosure, many lenders are overwhelmed. They're negotiating with distressed borrowers and figuring out how to sell the growing supply of foreclosed homes.

"The banks are so screwed up," says Mr. Mirmelli, the Phoenix investor, that they don't always have a clear idea of the value of the property they are foreclosing on.

Unemployment snapshot since recession began

CHANGE IN TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT

December 2007 through October 2009

click to enlarge, Chart via Office of Thrift Supervision