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Greenspan on current state of economy

A few interesting points to note:

1. (this is not new in his thinking) It’s not only real economy that drives equity market: but also it’s the other way around: equity market also drives real economy. The channel is stock prices help ratings of corporate debt.

2. He is very worried about US fiscal situation;

3. China is a bubble waiting to burst. But the impact will be uncertain.

Geely acquires Volvo – Now is official

This is another landmark acquisition after Lenovo’s purchase of IBM personal computer division more than five years ago, reports WSJ:

The chairman of China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. traveled to Sweden Friday to finalize his company’s acquisition of Ford Motor Co.’s Volvo car unit, a landmark deal for China’s burgeoning car industry that also poses serious challenges for Geely.

Geely Chairman Li Shufu is expected to preside over the signing of the deal in Sweden as early as Sunday, according to two people close to the Chinese company. Under the preliminary agreement, Geely will pay $1.8 billion for Ford’s unprofitable Swedish car brand, with loans and other financial backing from banks in China, the U.S. and Europe, including low-interest loans guaranteed by the governments of Sweden and Belgium, one of the two people said. Geely’s Hong Kong-listed unit, Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd., and some Chinese local governments also would invest in the deal, the person said. He wouldn’t identify those investors.

A final deal would be the culmination of years of planning by Geely and intensive negotiations with Ford over the last 18 months. The deal would make Volvo one of the most prominent foreign brands to be purchased by a Chinese company, and would mark the first time a Chinese company has acquired the full operations of a major foreign auto maker.

It would also be the biggest step so far in a broader push by China to create a handful of globally competitive auto makers out of an industry that today is largely fragmented. That effort has had mixed success: Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co. reached an agreement in December to acquire certain assets of General Motors Co.’s Saab unit, but another Chinese company, Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery, last month abandoned a planned purchase of GM’s Hummer unit after failing to gain Chinese government approval.

Also watch this video report from CNN:

How to watch China bubble

Ed. Chancellor of GMO (in Boston) has put out an excellent piece on the Chinese market and the “red flags” for investors.

The paper addresses how to identify the proper “speculative manias” and associated financial crises in the country. Chancellor sums it into key points, breaking down the bare essentials:

1. Great investment debacles generally start out with a compelling growth story.

2. A blind faith in the competence of the authorities is another typical feature of a classic mania. In other words, you can’t always trust the numbers that a government is putting out.

3. A general increase in investment is another leading indicator of financial distress. Capital is generally misspent during periods of euphoria.

4. Great booms are invariably accompanied by a surge in corruption. Countrywide, anyone?

5. Strong growth in the money supply is another robust leading indicator of financial fragility. Easy money lies behind all great episodes of speculation from the Tulip Mania of the 1630s – which was funded with IOUs – onward.

6. Fixed currency regimes often produce inappropriately low interest rates, which are liable to feed booms and end in busts.

7. Crises generally follow a period of rampant credit growth. In the boom, liabilities are contracted that cannot subsequently be repaid. The U.S. will ultimately be a perfect example of this.

8. Moral hazard is another common feature of great speculative manias. Greed isn’t necessarily good and we tend to act irresponsible during intense periods of speculation.

9. A rising stock of debt is not the only cause for concern. Investments financed with borrowed money don’t generate enough income to either service or repay the loan (what Minsky called “Ponzi finance”).

10. Dodgy loans are generally secured against collateral, most commonly real estate. Thus, a combination of strong credit growth and rapidly rising property prices are a reliable leading indicator of very painful busts.

Bergsten’s China action plan

Here is the action plan from C. Fred. Bergsten,  Director of Peterson Institute of International Economics:

(Congressional Testimony) Hence I would recommend that the Administration adopt a new three-part strategy to promote early and substantial appreciation of the exchange rate of the renminbi

  1. Label China as a “currency manipulator” in its next foreign exchange report to the Congress on April 15 and, as required by law, then enter into negotiations with China to resolve the currency problem.
  2. Hopefully with the support of the European countries, and as many emerging market and developing economies as possible, seek a decision by the IMF (by a 51 percent majority of the weighted votes of member countries) to launch a “special” or “ad hoc” consultation to pursue Chinese agreement to remedy the situation promptly. If the consultation fails to produce results, the United States should ask the Executive Board to decide (by a 70 percent majority of the weighted votes) to publish a report criticizing China’s exchange rate policy.
  3. Hopefully with a similarly broad coalition, the United States should exercise its right to ask the WTO to constitute a dispute settlement panel to determine whether China has violated its obligations under Article XV (“frustration of the intent of the agreement by exchange action”) of the WTO charter and to recommend remedial action that other member countries could take in response. The WTO under its rules would ask the IMF whether the renminbi is undervalued, another reason why it is essential to engage the IMF centrally in the new initiative from the outse
video interview at Bloomberg:

Jim Rogers on Chinese Yuan and Real Estate Bubble

Stephen Roach: Take out Krugman’s baseball bat

Krugman portrayed the problem of global imbalances as solely coming out of China’s high saving rate and manipulation of its currency. Stephen Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, offers a more comprehensive perspective.

Americans have been saving nothing, consuming too much, and high on leverage. “Get your own house in order” before you carry stick toward others — that’s the sensible advice from Roach.

Prospect of coming Yuan appreciation

US policy makers should understand the harder they pressure China to revaluate Yuan, the less likely they are going to get it. China is not another Japan.

What the US should do is to let Chinese policy makers appreciate that it’s mutual beneficiary to appreciate Yuan: with Yuan pegged to US dollar, China is essentially ‘importing’ the super easy monetary policy of the US, which adds fuel to fiscal and credit stimulus, potentially leading to even higher inflation.

Watch this FT video analysis on China’s recent exchange rate.

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Economists jousting on China’s exchange rate

Paul Krugman says the US should take on China, and imposes 25% tariff.  According to Mr. Krugman, a Nobel winning trade economist, he came to "propose this turn to policy hardball lightly":

Here, we have to get past a common misunderstanding: the view that the Chinese have us over a barrel, because we don’t dare provoke China into dumping its dollar assets.

What you have to ask is, What would happen if China tried to sell a large share of its U.S. assets? Would interest rates soar? Short-term U.S. interest rates wouldn’t change: they’re being kept near zero by the Fed, which won’t raise rates until the unemployment rate comes down. Long-term rates might rise slightly, but they’re mainly determined by market expectations of future short-term rates. Also, the Fed could offset any interest-rate impact of a Chinese pullback by expanding its own purchases of long-term bonds.

It’s true that if China dumped its U.S. assets the value of the dollar would fall against other major currencies, such as the euro. But that would be a good thing for the United States, since it would make our goods more competitive and reduce our trade deficit. On the other hand, it would be a bad thing for China, which would suffer large losses on its dollar holdings. In short, right now America has China over a barrel, not the other way around.

So we have no reason to fear China. But what should we do?

Some still argue that we must reason gently with China, not confront it. But we’ve been reasoning with China for years, as its surplus ballooned, and gotten nowhere: on Sunday Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, declared — absurdly — that his nation’s currency is not undervalued. (The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that the renminbi is undervalued by between 20 and 40 percent.) And Mr. Wen accused other nations of doing what China actually does, seeking to weaken their currencies “just for the purposes of increasing their own exports.”

But if sweet reason won’t work, what’s the alternative? In 1971 the United States dealt with a similar but much less severe problem of foreign undervaluation by imposing a temporary 10 percent surcharge on imports, which was removed a few months later after Germany, Japan and other nations raised the dollar value of their currencies. At this point, it’s hard to see China changing its policies unless faced with the threat of similar action — except that this time the surcharge would have to be much larger, say 25 percent.

I don’t propose this turn to policy hardball lightly. But Chinese currency policy is adding materially to the world’s economic problems at a time when those problems are already very severe. It’s time to take a stand.

Greg Mankiw, defending free-trade principle, argues that it's very hard to say whether Chinese Yuan is still overvalued after almost 21% appreciation since 2005.  Blaming China during time of crisis is simply not very constructive.

Critics of China say it is keeping the yuan undervalued to gain an advantage in the international marketplace. A cheaper yuan makes Chinese goods less expensive in the United States and American goods more expensive in China. As a result, American producers find it harder to compete with Chinese imports in the United States and to sell their own exports in China.

There is, however, another side to the story. The loss to American producers comes with a gain to the many millions of American consumers who prefer to pay less for the goods they buy.

The situation is much the same as when the price of imported oil falls, as it has done in recent months. Domestic oil producers may see lower profits, but American consumers are better off every time they fill up their tanks. Consumers similarly gain when a cheap yuan reduces the prices of T-shirts and televisions imported from China.

Perhaps the oddest thing about Mr. Geithner’s move is that his complaint seems out of date. The yuan-dollar exchange rate has moved considerably in recent years. After a long period of completely fixing the exchange rate, China allowed its currency to start moving in July 2005. Since then, it has appreciated by 21 percent.

DIRECTING attention to the China currency issue amid a worldwide recession and growing fears of depression is more than a distraction. It is downright counterproductive. Senators Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, and Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, have long proposed dealing with the yuan undervaluation by imposing tariffs on Chinese imports. The Treasury secretary’s comments risk stoking those protectionist embers.

Indeed, protectionist influences seem to be finding their way into the stimulus bill winding its way through Congress. The bill passed by the House included a provision banning the use of foreign iron and steel in infrastructure projects. The Senate has adopted a somewhat more flexible restriction (after voting down an amendment by John McCain to strip the “Buy American” provision from the bill).