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Daily Archives: November 22, 2009

China’s housing bubble is forming

A classic bubble is forming in China. Prick it, or deal with it after burst? 

A large bubble is forming in China’s property market as a result of Beijing’s credit-driven stimulus programme, one of the country’s most prominent real estate developers warned.

Zhang Xin, chief executive of Soho China, one of the country’s most successful privately owned property developers, told the Financial Times the asset bubble was leading to rampant wasteful investment in the sector, undermining the country’s long-term growth prospects.

“Real estate prices should only go up because people want to actually use the space, but at the moment we can see more and more empty buildings across the whole country and in every real estate segment,” Ms Zhang said. “The rising prices are a direct result of so much money coming from the banks and the Chinese banks should be very worried.”

Ms Zhang’s assessment was echoed by Fan Gang, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, who warned on Wednesday that real estate in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen was expensive and there was a growing risk of asset price bubbles.

Urban property prices in 70 big and medium-sized Chinese cities rose 3.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, accelerating from September’s 2.8 per cent rise, according to government figures.

Price rises in top-tier markets such as Beijing and Shanghai have been much faster. Analysts say the rebound has largely been driven by an unprecedented government-led expansion of bank lending. It is also being driven by government policies, including tax breaks, low interest rates and smaller down-payment requirements. 

Investment in real estate development, a key driver of economic growth, rose 18.9 per cent in the first 10 months of the year on a year earlier, a marked acceleration from 17.7 per cent growth in January-September.

Ms Zhang said the current speculation should be a serious warning for the industry and the general economy.

“In Manhattan, they have vacancy rates of 10-15 per cent and they feel like the sky is falling, but in Pudong [the central business district in Shanghai] vacancy rates are as high as 50 per cent and they are still building new skyscrapers,” she said.

“If you look at GDP growth, then China looks like a new engine driving the global economy, but if you look at how growth is being created here by so much wasteful investment you wouldn’t be so optimistic.”

Source: FT

China’s tough road ahead

China got the money.

But don’t mistakenly think China will catch up with the US soon. According to estimates by Robert Fogel at University of Chicago (see graphs below), China will catch up the US around 2020 in total GDP, but only until after 2040 will China reach the same living standards, measured by GDP per capita, as the US.

Currently, the GDP per capita in China is a little over $5,000 (in PPP term), way below US average of $45,000.


(click to enlarge; source: Robert Fogel)

China’s big problem is it’s non-democratic. The implications are 1) China’s political system is inherently unstable; 2) Political freedom and free expression of ideas are closely tied to human creativity and innovation, which is the long-term driver for a country’s wealth. That’s where I worry most about China.

On the optimistic side, we should know political system itself is an evolutionary system. The hope is that as Chinese are getting richer, the current political system will evolve into something similar to western democracy.

Also listen to this NPR report on “While US economy struggles, China rises“.

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Warren Buffet: Squanderville vs. Thriftville

Borrow to spend like the debts won’t be repaid forever. That’s how we got here. That’s how the US, the world superpower, jeopardizes its own currency and subjects its national security to foreign trading partners.

Also read Paul Samuelson’s warning on the US dollar
and Julian Robertson on “How we put ourselves into this terrible position“.

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