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Which emerging market is overheating?

Economist Magazine constructs a nice overheating index for emerging markets.  The index includes six macro factors: inflation, output gap, unemployment, excessive credit expansion, real interest rate, and current account.

http://media.economist.com/images/images-magazine/2011/07/02/fn/20110702_fnc095.gif

According to the index, the most overheated emerging market is Argentina, and it is followed by Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Vietnam.

China lies in the mid of the pack – given China’s recent wave of tightening, the risk is low for China, IMO.

For details of ranking for each factor, use link here.


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