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October 2025
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Market valuation

Let’s look at where the market stands in terms of valuation.

(click to enlarge; source: David Rosenberg)

Facts about "Great Crash 1929"


Financial Historian on ’29: ‘Great Crash’ Vs. ‘Break in the Market’

Today marks 80 years since the best known part of the 1929 stock market collapse, a two-day rout on Oct. 28 and Oct. 29 of that year. The equities crash brought a painful close to the period of unbridled financial optimism that was the 1920s.

To mark the occasion, MarketBeat has been asking financial historians for their thoughts — mini-essays if you will — on how the Great Crash informs the way we think about the current market recovery. Today’s offering comes from Richard Sylla, Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University:

Because their teachers and their history books said so, most people know that the Great Crash of 1929 caused the Great Depression of the early 1930s. I am not one of these people.

What I know is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 306 the day before Black Thursday, October 24, 1929, and at 199 on November 13, three weeks later. That drop of 35 percent was the Great Crash. I also know that on April 17, 1930, the day before Good Friday, the Dow closed at 294, or 96 percent of its level before Black Thursday. In other words, almost all of the decline of the crash proper had been undone by a recovery of 48 percent in the Dow between Halloween ’29 and Easter ’30. Most people don’t know that, or if they ever did they forgot it.

On Good Friday ’30, the New York Times referred not to the Great Crash, but to “the break in the market last Fall.” The Times that day also noted that the day before, April 17, “average prices worked higher and a few outstanding issues shot up smartly to new high prices for the year to date,” and that “British interests were investing heavily in these issues.”

The Great Depression began sometime after the spring of 1930, most likely when a lot of banks failed late that year. But the so-called Great Crash a year earlier had almost nothing to do with those bank failures, the first of thousands of bank failures that occurred from late 1930 to March 1933.

What’s interesting from the perspective of 2009 is that from September 12, 2008, the Friday before Lehman, to the low of March 9, 2009, the Dow lost 44 percent. The Great Crash of 2008-09 was actually a greater crash than the Great Crash of 1929. And half a year after the crash lows of last March, the Dow again is up about 50 percent, as it was half a year after October 1929.

Is the market’s recovery since March now giving us a better forecast of what lies ahead than it did in April 1930? Let’s hope so. Let’s hope, too, that people stop exaggerating the effects of “the break in the market” in October ’29.

Why industrial revolution happened in Britain?

An excellent piece that offers convincing evidence and reasoning of why industrial revolution happened in Britain, not in China, India or France.

(click on the graph to watch; best material for weekend musing, lasting about one hour)

China to become the global center for auto design

It’s amazing to read this piece…thinking about it in a global macro context: Japan suffered two decades of stagnant growth; the US just barely emerged from the worst crisis in a century; while China has emerged as the No. 1 car market in the world. The world is fast changing, indeed. (source: WSJ)

Chinese Inspire Car Makers’ Designs

BEIJING — A decade ago, in search of inspiration for an ultra-luxurious Mercedes-Benz, designer Olivier Boulay studied Japan’s chauffeur-car culture.

Now, as he dreams about the future of the automobile, he zips around the streets of Beijing on a $367 electric bike, along with throngs of the city’s residents.

“China is the perfect place to think about the future shape of mobility,” said Mr. Boulay, the 52-year-old design chief for Daimler AG’s Mercedes-Benz unit in China, who moved to Beijing from Tokyo this year. “It’s my job here to push my staff to push the envelope and think about the global automotive future from Beijing.”

Mr. Boulay reflects a profound shift taking place in the car industry. As the Chinese car market expands, global auto makers increasingly are making design decisions in China. The result is that consumer trends in China are being felt in models sold around the world.

[Shift in Fortunes chart and photo]

Car makers from General Motors Co. to Volkswagen AG to Toyota Motor Corp., are pouring resources into China, which displaced Japan as the world’s second-biggest auto market a few years ago and is now poised to surpass the U.S. this year as the world’s biggest.

The consequences are on stark display at the Tokyo auto show, which runs through Nov. 4. Regular exhibitors including Mercedes-Benz, GM, and Hyundai Motor Co. from neighboring South Korea all stayed home this year.

After emerging from bankruptcy protection in July, GM located its international headquarters in Shanghai, where it has a flagship joint venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. And Ford Motor Co. recently decided to move its Asia-Pacific head office to China from Bangkok.

GM already has three global vehicles designed with China-inspired features: the Buick LaCrosse and Regal and the Chevy Cruze. The LaCrosse emerged from a concept car called the Invicta GM developed by GM’s design studios in Shanghai and Warren, Mich.

The LaCrosse’s interior is splashed with light and warm colors. The wood grain on the steering wheel and dash blend in almost imperceptibly with the seat leather, a nod to the Chinese, who are used to monotone color schemes.

“We take our Chinese customers’ and we take our Chinese partners’ input extremely seriously,” said Lowell Paddock, vice president of product development for GM’s international operations.

In China, global auto makers are pondering not just the next model cycle in four or five years but also the shape of cars 10 to 15 years down the road.

“China is a very important pillar for Daimler and its global strategy,” said Ulrich Walker, chairman and chief executive of Daimler Northeast Asia, who is overseeing Mercedes-Benz ‘s expansion in China.

Through September this year, Mercedes-Benz sold 44,300 vehicles in China, up 52% from a year earlier, according to company figures. During the same period, sales in Japan fell 28% to 21,829 vehicles. (Sales in the U.S. reached 147,800.)

Separately, Daimler on Tuesday posted an 80% drop in third-quarter net profit, but rebounded from two quarters of losses as sales at Mercedes improved. The Stuttgart-based car maker said third-quarter profit was €41 million ($60.9 million). Third-quarter revenue fell 21% to €19.3 billion.

Japan is now the eighth-biggest market for Mercedes-Benz, slipping from sixth place three years ago. China has become the brand’s fourth-largest market, compared with 10th in 2006.

China is one of the biggest markets for the top-of-the-line S-Class sedan, whose redesigned model was launched in China earlier this year after significant input from Chinese consumers. Mercedes even flew some of its customers and those of competitors to Germany to see early prototypes.

While China accounts for only about 4% of overall Mercedes sales, customers around the world are seeing features the Chinese like: bigger, limousine-like back seats with more-advanced entertainment and climate-control systems, among other amenities. In China, many upscale buyers have chauffeurs and drive on their own only on weekends. Such customers also are generally in their 30s and 40s — much younger than elsewhere. They prefer light-colored interiors, such as tan, not the somber blacks and grays often preferred in other regions.

Mr. Boulay’s arrival in Beijing illustrates China’s rise. A Frenchman by birth, he had spent 17 years in Japan, where in the late 1990s, as head of the Mercedes design studio in Tokyo, he styled the car maker’s ultra-luxurious Maybach sedan.

In Beijing, he wants to soak in the country’s new fascination with electric-powered bikes and cars to develop concepts for future Mercedes global products, including a luxury electric vehicle. His advance-design center is one of five that Mercedes operates around the world.

Mr. Boulay is especially fascinated with how ordinary Chinese people embrace e-bikes for daily transportation, and the way the country’s governments at all levels are prompting a rapid adaptation of all-electric battery cars and plug-in hybrids.

“You can see how a new generation of consumers in this country is way out in front,” said Mr. Boulay.

He believes the shift to electricity opens up new possibilities for designers to be more creative because of the simplicity of fully electric cars, which need neither bulky engines nor transmissions. Some companies such as Japan’s Nissan Motor Co. are experimenting with round, cartoon-like electric pod cars with no hoods or trunks.

China’s culture of conspicuous consumption and its big luxury market make the country an ideal place to “generate new ideas and new concepts,” Mr. Boulay said.

“We want to use China as leverage to push ourselves,” he said. “That’s why I am here and why we are setting up an advance design studio-just like we did years ago in Japan.”

Financial deregulation to the extreme

PBS FRONTLINE, “The Warning”. The inside story: why this financial crisis could have been avoided.

The deeper question is: even with regulation in place, could we have been able to prevent this crisis? I am not sure.

Ferguson on the US Dollar

Two pieces of the perspective of US Dollar:

Is "Chicago School" to blame?

Interview of Michael Mussa: his view on whether Chicago School of economics is to blame for this crisis.

UK in dire strait

Posting from Paris…

The market continues to punish British pound, now the euro/pound exchange rate declined to 1.08, not far from parity. UK’s economy has declined for the consecutive 6 quarters. (reports WSJ)

A note from Goldman Sachs said it all. The U.K.’s latest gross-domestic-product data showing the economy shrunk by 0.4% in the third quarter and by 5.2% over the past year was “Unbelievable. Literally.”

This result wasn’t just at odds with the Bank of England’s 0.2% growth forecast but was out of line with recent survey data showing economic pickup.

If the official statistics are right, then the U.K. is in more trouble than the market thought. A sixth consecutive quarter of economic contraction would confirm this as the worst U.K. recession since World War II.

But the Office for National Statistics has a poor track record of explaining what is going on in the economy. Goldman Sachs notes the correlation between the ONS’s first estimates of quarterly growth and the actual outcome is just 0.10. That suggests this data is very likely to be revised upward.

Even so, the data could provide just the excuse the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee needs to expand its quantitative-easing program. That should boost the government-bond, or gilt, market which had recently started to sell off, assuming recent positive economic signals would complicate the BOE’s ability to continue buying gilts.

Good news for gilts, however, looks like bad news for sterling. The combination of the poor GDP data and any expansion of quantitative easing will reduce pressure on the U.K. government to address its dire fiscal position. With the Treasury already on course to overshoot its £175 billion ($291 billion) borrowing forecast this year, the biggest risk to the U.K. remains that the markets conclude its triple-A rating also is literally unbelievable.