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How good is economic growth and stock market correlated in China?

The Chinese A share market has been a better indicator of China’s economic fundamentals since the second half of 2005, thanks to the non-tradable share reform and growing composition of institutional investors.

    Chinese A Share

Do Private Equity Firms "Create Value"?

A NBER digest commentary (author: Laurent Belsie) looking at the following research: Do Private Equity Firms “Create Value”?

” Private equity owned companies use much stronger incentives for their top executives and have substantially higher debt levels … (but there is) little evidence that (they)…outperform public firms in profitability or operational efficiency.”

In Managerial Incentives and Value Creation: Evidence from Private Equity (NBER Working Paper No. 14331), co-authors Phillip Leslie and Paul Oyer analyze the differences between companies owned by private equity (PE) investors and similar public companies. They observe that the PE-owned companies use much stronger incentives for their top executives and have substantially higher debt levels. However, they find little evidence that PE-owned firms outperform public firms in profitability or operational efficiency. Leslie and Oyer also show that the compensation and debt differences between PE-owned companies and public companies disappear over a very short period (one to two years) after the PE-owned firm goes public. This raises questions about whether and how PE firms, and the incentives they put in place, create value.

A central tenet of PE investors is that they fix companies by improving their management. A major method for accomplishing this is through managers’ compensation: lower salaries than their counterparts in public corporations, but bigger equity stakes in their company. The idea is that by tying compensation more closely to corporate performance, these managers will make the tough but needed changes. That theory doesn’t always work out in practice, though.

Leslie and Oyer examine 233 U.S. companies that either underwent a leveraged buyout (LBO) between 1996 and 2004 and then completed an initial public offering (IPO) before the end of 2005 or went private between 1998 and October 2007 (and about which there is compensation data available). They supplement that data with interviews of half a dozen experienced executives at private equity firms. They find that since 1996 the highest paid executive in a privately owned firm earned about 12 percent less salary, but got 3.3 percentage points more company equity and 12.6 percent more of his cash compensation through bonuses and other variable pay, than the CEO of a public corporation. And, they claim that it’s not just the CEO who got this treatment: the 20 to 80 top managers typically also got significant equity in the company.

“A very important aspect of the equity programs is that managers are required to contribute capital — managers purchase the equity with their own personal funds,” they write. They say that their study is the first to document the changes in management incentives in private buyouts since 1990, when the PE landscape was far different. The impact of these incentives is less clear, however. “While the incentives given to PE-owned firms’ managers keep their companies operating at average levels of profitability and efficiency, we do not find evidence that they create significant excess profits,” the authors conclude. In only one category they measured – sales per employee – did private-equity ownership have a significant positive effect. Even that effect dissipated in a few years once the company went back to being a public corporation.

Indeed, the high debt levels and pay structure under private equity management also tended to disappear in one to two years after the firm reverted back to a public company, the study finds. Petco, the pet-supplies chain, illustrates the cycle. When it was a public company between 1995 and 1999, Petco’s CEO Bruce Devine owned about 2 percent of the stock. After he took the company private in 2000, his share rose to about 10 percent. When the company went through an IPO in 2002, his share of the company fell immediately to 7 percent. By 2006, when he was chairman but no longer CEO, his share had fallen to 4 percent. The chain’s debt-to-asset ratio tripled after it went private but began to fall back toward pre-2002 levels once it was public again.

The authors concede that their sample is limited because, in most cases, private-equity firms don’t have to report compensation practices. Thus, the sample represents a minority of the private-equity universe: 144 companies that did publish compensation data as part of a reverse LBO (where the private equity owners sell out in an initial public offering). But the authors find no reason that managerial incentives at firms with an LBO should be different from others owned by private-equity firms. The authors control for the other concern — that their sample might be skewed because private-equity firms target companies with already high managerial incentives – by looking at the characteristics of 89 other U.S. firms that were attractive to private equity firms but not yet owned by them.

Although papers published in 1989 and 1990 documented differences in the share of CEO equity ownership between publicly traded firms and firms that had undergone a management buyout, this study is the only one to study the phenomenon on post-1990 buyouts.

When the housing market will stop falling?

The key to end this mess, especially in banking sector, is to stablize the housing market. Without any policy interventions, let’s look at how far we are close to a housing bottom.

The first graph (all graphs curtesy of Calculatedrisk) shows you the price-to-rent ratio. Historical average is around 1.1, now we are at 1.2. Looks quite optimistic.

But the drop of price-to-rent ratio may be due to rising rents, as more people switched to rental in this depressing market. So we now look at price-to-income ratio. You actually find the similar story: historical average is at 1.0, now we are at 1.1. Almost there.

So does this mean we are near the housing bottom?

Not necessarily. Just like stock price, housing price tends to overshoot (in this case, undershoot). The overshooting scenario is very much likely giving the monthly supply of existing homes still remains at historical high level — we still have more than 9 months of supply to clear, that’s 4 months more than normal.

Looking at the same problem from a different angel: if we compare the existing home sales with new home sales— in the past, the two sales figures moved closely along with each other. But since early 2007, this relationship has diverged, with existing home sales trying to hold up and falling at a slower speed, while new home sales suffering almost a free fall.

This partially explains why the inventory of existing home sales has built up and remained high -a lot of home buyers suffered a huge blow to their wealth as their mortgage values are significanly higher than the current market price (underwater mortgage). And imagine the impact on consumptions: home owners basically have to cut their spending to fill the hole of falling housing price.

With huge inventory buildup, it’s very likely housing price will overshoot on the downside. But without price correction, the inventory will not clear. It’s a dilemma for policy makers. If policy makers try to intervene and stop the price from falling at current level, it will delay the market clearing process, and we are likely to see a very anemic recovery of housing market and consumption.

Economic history shows when recession happens along with housing bubble, the recession tends to last much longer.

Arthur Levitt on the "N-word"


Arthur Levitt's view on bank nationalization
 
 
 

Volcker: Capitalism will survive

Volcker, "This is mother of all financial crises…but capitalism will survive, although financial industry needs revisions".

Watch this video speech by Paul Volcker

A debate on bank nationalization

video link from Bloomberg.

Stiglitz on bank nationalization

or click the video link here

America enters the lost decade

S&P 500 dropped to the lowest point since 2003, and the index is back to the level of mid 1997.


(click to enlarge)