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Daily Archives: August 14, 2009

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August 2009
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Compare historical rallies

Summer is near its end; time to ponder where the market will be headed next. After almost 50% rally since March, the market has gone too far ahead of the real economy, in my opinion. Every recession is different, but with jobless rate sure to go higher and no real demand from the consumption, the history may repeat itself: this does not bode well for the market, especially after a big housing bubble.

(click on the graph to watch the video; source: FT)

Humility and economic forecasting

We didn’t forecast “Great Depression”; We failed to forecast this “Great Recession”.

Obama’s economists painted a rosy picture for their stimulus plan, now it turned out to be deadly wrong; Should we trust the Fed to do the job then?

Watch the following video clips and have some humility in prediction and forecasting.