Julian Robertson, former hedge fund manager of Tiger Management, shares his insights about the future of the US economy. He repeated this many times, “Our leadership failed and put ourselves into this terrible position that if Chinese and Japanese don’t buy our bonds anymore, we are doomed…interest rates could easily go up to 15-20%.”
The excess had been building up over the years and reached to such a unsustainable level (see the graph below); It’s hard to imagine how the US economy could get back on track without a serious sacrifice from the US consumers.
The efforts of government and the Fed to prop up the economy through printing money and more government debt are just trying to stop the pain for a short while. It’s delusional to think we will get over this and get back to party again.
Watch this interview from CNBC:
One thing Robertson didn’t mention is: If Chinese stop buying US bonds, where can they put their money? At least I don’t see China has that figured out. Not yet.
I am not as bold as Peter in predicting Gold price, but I think there is a good chance that gold price will go even higher than today, either because we will have a surge in consumer price inflation when the economy snaps back quickly, or we’ll have an asset bubble, most likely in all kinds of commodities, even when the economy still remains slack. The latter is a more likely scenario.