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May 2010
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Mussa on the art of economic forecasting

In my previous post in September 2009, Michael Mussa deviated sharply from blue-chip forecasters and predicted a sharp rebound of US economy.  Now in hindsight, although the recovery is short of V-shaped recovery,  it has been quite robust.

In this interview, Michael Mussa explains why he predicted so sharply different from others (audio, about 10 mins).  His prediction for GDP growth for 2010 is 4% annually, unemployment rate (currently at 9.9%) will come down to 8% by 2011, but will take another 4 years to get to 5% level.


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