Will China surpass the US?
An interesting question ask, and a nice debate to watch.
My 2 seconds on this: China’s TOTAL GDP, now about 1/3 of the US, will catch up with the US in around 2020-2025 – for this I have no doubt. China is not another Soviet Union – China’s political party is still called Communist Party, but if you ever travel to China, and talk to the average people there, you will immediately know China is the most capitalist country in the world – travel makes you smarter 🙂
The much more difficult task is to lift the living standards of average Chinese citizen to the US level – China’s GDP per capita is only 1/10 of the US – and build up stronger and better institutions, especially political and legal ones, to sustain the long-term growth. For this, China has a lot to learn from the US.
Tax ticking time bomb
The Obama administration is pressing to extend the Bush tax cuts for everyone with an income under $250,000 a year and to raise taxes on those above.
This so-called middle-income tax cut first sounds very fair, but until you look deep into it. We know most small-business households earn more than $250k, and they are the main job creator of the US economy. You simply don’t want to raise job-generator’s tax during time of huge economic uncertainties with very high unemployment.