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Daily Archives: June 8, 2009

Replay of 2008 oil bubble?

In 2008, we had a huge oil bubble. The crude oil shot up to $147 per barrel. Now with crude up 99% in 75 trading days, are we going to have another oil bubble?


(graph via Bespoke Investments)

WSJ compares the similarities and differences between the current oil runup and the spike in 2008.

The rapid rise in the price of crude-oil futures, which touched $70 on Friday, is sparking fears of a repeat of last year’s energy rollercoaster.

Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday hit $70.32 before closing down 37 cents at $68.44. Prices remain well below what they were a year ago, when oil was selling for more than $125 a barrel, but the climb in recent months has been even steeper than last year’s.

Prices have more than doubled since closing at $33.98 on Feb. 12, the recent low. They’re up more than 50% since the start of 2009, compared to a 33% rise during the same period last year.

[oil prices]

What China has become

China —impressive economic growth with increasing censorship on information. What China has become?  I am afraid this is really what scares people in the West.  Chinese leaders may soon realize block of free information flow and ideas will eventually haunt them and hamper China's future long-term growth.

WSJ reports:

China plans to require that all personal computers sold in the country as of July 1 be shipped with software that blocks access to certain Web sites, a move that could give government censors unprecedented control over how Chinese users access the Internet.

The government, which has told global PC makers of the requirement but has yet to announce it to the public, says the effort is aimed at protecting young people from "harmful" content. The primary target is pornography, says the main developer of the software, a company that has ties to China's security ministry and military.

Where are the jobs?

Again, the stable job growth happens in small and midsized towns that concentrate on technology, healthcare and are near universities.