Recession ended in June 2009
This is old news. Using the 4-week moving average of weekly unemployment claims, Jim Hamilton and Bob Gordon, among others, had predicted the end of recession more than a year ago.
This just came as a late confirmation. Nothing surprising here. Obviously, NBER this time did not put so much emphasis on employment, because the labor market is still terrible.
(source: WSJ)
US vs Japan: so far not much difference
Deflation watch continues. The following graph from Bank of Japan is the most damaging chart I’ve seen for a long while (hat tip to John Taylor and his blog).
US policy makers still have chance to revert the course. But so far, they just look all too similar.
(click to enlarge; source: Bank of Japan)