In 2009, all investments in China will come from government, at least from the most recent World Bank China Quarterly report.

(click to enlarge; source: The World Bank)

China is concerned about the dollar, but what can she do? Reports from WSJ. (by the way, Geithner should really be let go; he is not qualified for the job).

Link to the full program at PBS

From WSJ:

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s latest plan to rescue U.S. banks has been widely welcomed by the markets as a potential savior of the global financial system. They may be right — but not for the reasons they suppose.

To be successful, banks and potential investors need to agree on a price for toxic assets. That’s a tall order. Banks that haven’t marked their exposures to market won’t want to sell assets at prices that would force them to take big losses. And banks that have marked their exposures to market aren’t likely to want to sell either – particularly if they believe the assets are performing well and likely to show future gains.

Take HSBC, which holds $33.1 billion of bonds backed by assets like U.S. residential mortgages, commercial mortgages and student loans. At the end of 2008, the market value of those assets was just $20.3 billion, yet the bank took just $279 million of impairments last year through the income statement. Under a severe stress scenario, HSBC expects impairments of $2.5 billion over the life of the assets.

An investor who paid the market price for those assets would, on HSBC’s forecasts, make an unleveraged 50% return if held to maturity. Add in the generous leverage terms on offer from the Fed, and the returns would be over 100%.

Of course, banks won’t want to sell at prices that give investors returns like that. Granted, the financing provided by the Geithner plan could boost prices by removing some of the illiquidity discount on the toxic assets. But that may not be enough to offset the fear among investors that losses on the assets will keep rising if the economy stays in the doldrums.

Does that mean the plan is doomed to failure? Not necessarily. Its most useful service may yet be to establish more bid prices for toxic exposures, paving the way for more realistic marking of assets, even if they aren’t ultimately sold. True, some banks will protest to regulators that the bids are unrealistically low. But the authorities may not listen if the bids reflect values they’ve arrived at as a result of the stress tests currently being conducted on bank balance sheets.

True, sharply lower asset values could imply insolvency for some banks. The Treasury would then have to decide whether to seize such a bank or keep it alive with government equity injections.

Seizure is fraught with headaches, but at least there would be a ready body of private sector bidders for bank assets.

Paul Krugman thinks the plan is the same as the original Paulson plan. No fundamental change and it won’t work:

Pay attention to his words at the end that the Fed will inflate the $ to get out of this crisis. This is another reason to buy gold, and commodities in general.

Credit is good, but too much of it will have the opposite effect. This graph looks at the total credit as a percent of GDP from 1929 to 2008.

(click to enlarge; source: Morgan Stanley)

I always like living in a college town, not only it exposes me to the intellectual environment, but also I get to play sports with a lot of energetic students. Now WSJ reports the college towns are also recession proof. Good news.

Why College Towns Are Looking Smart

Looking for a job? Try a college town.

Morgantown, W.Va., home to West Virginia University, has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the U.S. — just 3.9% — and the university itself has about 260 job openings, from nurses to professors to programmers.

“We’re hurting for people, especially to fill our computer and technical positions,” says Margaret Phillips, vice president for human relations at WVU.

Of the six metropolitan areas with unemployment below 4% as of January, three of them are considered college towns. One is Morgantown. The other two are Logan, Utah, home of Utah State University, and Ames, Iowa, home of Iowa State University. Both have just 3.8% unemployment, based on Labor Department figures that are not seasonally adjusted.

The pattern holds true for many other big college towns, such as Gainesville, Fla., Ann Arbor, Mich., Manhattan, Kan., and Boulder, Colo. In stark contrast, the unadjusted national unemployment rate is 8.5%.

While college towns have long been considered recession-resistant, their ability to avoid the depths of the financial crisis shaking the rest of the nation is noteworthy. The ones faring the best right now are not only major education centers; they also are regional health-care hubs that draw people into the city and benefit from a stable, educated, highly skilled work force.

The big question hanging over these communities is whether their formula for success can outlast the nation’s nastiest recession in at least a quarter-century. Amid investment losses and state budget woes, many college cities are starting to see their unemployment rates rise, even though they’re still lower than the national average. The longer the recession drags on, the more likely college towns are to catch up with their harder-hit peers.

They already have felt the impact of the recession. WVU saw its endowment fall by nearly a quarter in the second half of 2008, and its hospitals are reducing 401(k) matching contributions and delaying $20 million in capital spending, though its state funding has remained intact.

State Funding Cuts

Utah State University has seen nearly 10% of its state funding cut in the past six months, and in response has laid off about 20 employees and imposed a mandatory weeklong furlough for its employees during spring break to save costs. Iowa State, facing a 9% reduction in state appropriations, just received approval to begin an early-retirement program.

But for now, at least, job seekers who act quickly — and are willing to relocate — could well fare better in places like Morgantown, which is about 70 miles south of Pittsburgh near the Pennsylvania border. College towns like Morgantown have a distinct advantage over many other cities: They enjoy a constant stream of graduates, some who stay put and others who return years later — and each year brings a new crop of students and potential residents to the area.

“I could go almost anywhere and get a job right now,” says Shane Cruse, a senior in the WVU school of nursing who graduates in May, citing the shortage of nurses nationwide. But come June 1, he’ll be starting as a registered nurse at WVU’s Ruby Memorial Hospital.

“I love it here,” Mr. Cruse says. “It’s a large-enough city that there’s plenty to do. But you still leave your house and feel like it’s your hometown.”

WVU has a current enrollment of nearly 29,000, about the same size as the city of Morgantown, though the metro population is now about 115,000 and draws thousands more daily from the surrounding region for health care, shopping and WVU athletic events.

Today, the university and its hospital system together employ nearly 12,500 people — the largest employer in the whole state. Job growth in the Morgantown metropolitan area averaged 3.2% a year from 2002-07, according to the university’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research, compared to growth of just 1.1% nationally and 0.7% in West Virginia. The university system in total has an estimated annual economic impact of about $3.9 billion statewide.

Highly Skilled Work Force

Economists credit a highly skilled work force for the resilience of college towns. Edward Glaeser, an economics professor at Harvard University, has demonstrated that as the share of the adult population with college degrees in a city increases by 10%, wages correspondingly rise by about 7.8%.

“Apart from weather, human capital has been the best long-run predictor of urban success in the last century,” Mr. Glaeser says.

Nikki Bowman, a 1992 graduate of WVU, is the kind of person economists have in mind when they speak of “human capital.” She spent years in the magazine industry in places like Chicago and Washington, D.C., before returning last year to start her own magazine, WV Living, which was launched in November.

“It was my dream to come back, and I knew I could make it work,” says Ms. Bowman, 37. “Part of why I wanted to be here was to pull from the journalism school and I have a lot of great interns as a result,” which helps keep her payroll costs down.

WVU graduate Lindsay Williams, 29, started work as a real-estate broker with Howard Hanna’s Morgantown office shortly after leaving WVU while waiting for her then-boyfriend — now her husband — to finish his degree. She now serves as president of the Morgantown Board of Realtors.

Another factor helping college towns: “communiversity,” the current term for partnerships between universities and their home cities, such as joint economic development projects. The trend also reflects a shift in education to increasingly emphasize out-of-classroom learning, such as internships and volunteer work, that by definition engages the community, according to Sal Rinella, president of the Society for College and University Planning in Los Angeles.

“We could actually call these town-gown partnerships a kind of new movement in American higher education,” he says. “In the last 20 years or so, the boundaries between the cities and the universities have really begun to crumble.”

Planning experts point to the successful relationships between the University of Pennsylvania and downtown Philadelphia, and Johns Hopkins University’s multimillion-dollar partnership with the East Baltimore Development Corp. But the college-town effect has its greatest impact in places like Morgantown.

The close relationship between Morgantown and WVU was partly borne out of desperation. In 1991, a young, reform-minded group including Ron Justice, who is now the mayor, was elected to the city council at a pivotal moment; the decades-long decline of railroad and heavy industry in Morgantown meant the city urgently needed to find a new engine of growth.

The council hired a city manager to oversee municipal finances, and began working more closely with the WVU administration in a joint effort to turn the town around. They started out small, with road-paving projects and public safety. In 2001, the university relocated a major new administration building in the city’s blighted Wharf District instead of its downtown campus.

The new building became a catalyst for redevelopment of the whole waterfront. A new hotel, restaurants and a $28 million event center have since been built, and the old railroad tracks are now miles of jogging and biking trails.

The university has continued to upgrade its downtown campus and added new facilities like a $34 million student recreation center with two pools, a climbing wall and a café to its campus a few miles north of town. Construction is now under way on an 88-acre research park near the hospital and a $50 million commercial development featuring a Hilton Garden Inn.

At the same time, WVU president David Hardesty’s aggressive expansion of the university’s student body — which has grown 50% since 1995 — and program offerings in the 1990s, including a world-renowned forensics and biometrics program, helped raise the caliber of the city’s work force.

Jason Donahue graduated from WVU in 1993 and followed a career in commercial real-estate development to a job with ECDC Realty in Charleston, S.C., whose primary business is site selection and development for Wal-Mart Stores Inc. He moved back to Morgantown in 2007 to handle development in the Pennsylvania region. “My wife would tell you I picked our house so we could be within walking distance to the football games,” he said with a chuckle. They are now season-ticket holders.

His wife, a registered nurse, quickly found work at one of the city’s senior centers. Their 7-year-old daughter was in a community play last weekend sponsored by WVU — a production of “Alice in Wonderland.” “She was Gardener No. 7 with two speaking lines, and she did great,” Mr. Donahue says.

The plan consists of two key components:

• Legacy Loans Program: a program to combine an FDIC guarantee of debt financing with
equity capital from the private sector and the Treasury to support the purchase of troubled loans from insured depository institutions.

• Legacy Securities Program: a program to combine financing from the Federal Reserve and Treasury through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (“TALF”) with equity capital from the private sector and the Treasury to address the problem of troubled securities.

Example How It Works

For Legacy Loans Program

If a bank has a pool of residential mortgages with $100 face value that they are seeking to divest, the bank would approach the FDIC. The FDIC would determine, according to the above process, that they would be willing to leverage the pool at a 6-to-1 debt-to-equity ratio. The pool would then be auctioned by the FDIC, with several private buyers submitting bids. The highest bid from the private sector – in this example, $84 – would define the total price paid by the private investors and the Treasury for the mortgages. Of this $84 purchase price, the Treasury and the private investors would split the $12 equity portion. The new PPIF would issue debt for the remaining $72 of the price and the debt would be guaranteed by the FDIC. This guarantee would be secured by the purchased assets. The private investor would then manage the servicing of the asset pool and the timing of its disposition on an ongoing basis – using asset managers approved and subject to oversight by the FDIC. Through transactions like this, the Legacy Loans Program is designed to use private sector pricing to cleanse banks’ balance sheets of troubled assets and create a more healthy banking system.

For Legacy Securities Program

Treasury will launch the application process for managers interested in the Legacy Securities Program. An interested FM would submit an application and be pre-qualified to raise private capital to participate in joint investment programs with Treasury. Treasury would agree to provide a one-for-one equity match for every dollar of private capital that the FM raises and provide fund-level leverage for the proposed PPIF. The FM would commence the sales process for the PPIF and raise $100 of private capital for the PPIF. Treasury would provide $100 of equity capital to be invested on side-by-side basis with private capital and would provide up to a $100 loan to the PPIF if the fund met certain guidelines. Treasury would also consider requests from the FM for an additional loan of up to $100 subject to further restrictions. As a result, the FM would have $300 (or, in some cases, up to $400) in total capital and would commence a purchase program for targeted securities. The FM would have full discretion in investment decisions, although the PPIFs will predominately follow a long-term buy and hold strategy. Depending on the amount of loans provided directly from Treasury, the PPIF would also be eligible to take advantage of the expanded TALF program for legacy securities when that program is operational.

Here is a graph from NYT, making the two examples easier to understand:

(click to enlarge)

Reactions to the plan: